Super El Niño Winter: What Florida Gardeners Do Now

On August 13, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said there is a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Niño this fall and winter. They also put a 69 percent chance on something that has never happened in the records going back to 1950. I have been watching this build all summer. Here is what it could do to your Florida garden, and what I am already doing in mine.

Let me say the most important thing first, because everything else depends on it. A seasonal forecast gives you odds. It does not give you a schedule. Nobody can tell you the low temperature at your house on January 15.

What we can do is read the pattern, learn what that pattern usually does to Florida, and get ready while the ground is still warm and the plants are still growing.

That is the point of this whole post. Not fear. Preparation.

What a super El Niño actually is

El Niño is a strip of warmer than normal ocean water along the equator in the Pacific. That warm water changes where thunderstorms build. That changes where the jet stream runs. And the jet stream is what decides whose winter is wet and whose winter is dry.

During El Niño, the subtropical jet drops south and runs right across the Gulf and over Florida. Storm after storm rides that track. That is why our winters turn wet.

Forecasters score it with the water temperature in a patch of the Pacific called Niño 3.4. Above 0.5 degrees Celsius is El Niño. Above 1.5 is strong. Above 2.0 is what NOAA calls very strong.

"Super El Niño" is not an official term. It is what people say when the number gets extreme. And right now the number is getting extreme.

What NOAA is saying right now

Straight out of the August 13, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion from the Climate Prediction Center:

• An El Niño Advisory is in effect.
• The official line reads, "El Niño is strengthening, with a greater than 90% chance of a very strong event during the Northern Hemisphere fall and winter 2026-27."
• For October through December, forecasters put a 69 percent chance on an event stronger than any El Niño on record back to 1950, meaning plus 2.5 degrees Celsius or higher.
• July readings came in at plus 1.4 in Niño 3.4, plus 1.7 in Niño 3, and plus 2.9 in Niño 1+2. The most recent weekly Niño 3.4 reading was plus 1.8.

Columbia University's IRI, which collects the model forecasts every month, has El Niño at 100 percent odds from late 2026 into early 2027, 97 percent through March into May, and still 78 percent by April through June 2027. For the October through December peak, 25 of 26 models land in the very strong category.

You have already felt part of this without knowing it. In August, NOAA cut the hurricane season forecast to 7 to 13 named storms and 2 to 6 hurricanes, down from 8 to 14 and 3 to 6 back in May, and raised the odds of a below normal season from 55 percent to 75 percent. The reason they gave was El Niño. Quiet tropics, loud winter. Same engine.

NOAA also added a caution I want you to hear. A record breaking El Niño could produce atmospheric effects nobody has observed before. That is the National Weather Service saying the honest thing out loud.

What an El Niño winter usually does to Florida

This part is well documented, and it is the same in every Florida forecast office.

Wetter. The National Weather Service in Tallahassee puts it plainly. El Niño generally brings above average rainfall to Florida through fall, winter, and spring. The Florida Climate Center goes month by month and calls October through December wet and cool, then January through March very wet and cool.

Cooler. Not because arctic air comes calling. Because clouds and rain cut the sunshine. Our dry season is normally sunny and warm. An El Niño dry season is not really a dry season at all.

Stormier, and that includes tornadoes. This is the one people skip. The NWS office in Tallahassee reports that Florida averages about 15 tornadoes in an El Niño year, close to double a neutral or La Niña year, and closer to 20 during a strong El Niño.

I do not bring that up to scare anybody. I bring it up because of what happened the last time we had an El Niño this strong.

On the night of February 22 into February 23, 1998, twelve tornadoes tore across Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia counties. Forty two people died. Two hundred sixty were hurt. It is still the deadliest tornado outbreak in Florida history. The National Weather Service explanation of it says the quiet part clearly: during El Niño the jet stream is usually stronger and farther south, right over Florida, and that greatly increases the odds that conditions favor strong tornadoes.

If you live along the I-4 corridor, get a weather radio. Not a phone app. A radio that wakes you up at two in the morning.

And now the freeze question. Everybody assumes cooler means more freezes. The record says otherwise.

The NWS office in Melbourne studied it. Most of the major freezes in central Florida since 1958 happened during neutral or weak La Niña conditions, not El Niño. Severe freezes in the interior have averaged only about one quarter of one event per year over that whole stretch. The Florida Climate Center says the same thing from the other direction: the chance of a severe freeze is greatest during neutral years, not during a strong El Niño or a strong La Niña.

The reason is simple. El Niño clouds us over and keeps the arctic air track farther east. Hard freezes here need a clear, calm, dry night for the ground to dump its heat straight into space.

But read the fine print, because the same NWS office wrote it. ENSO has much less forecast skill for temperature than it has for rain and storminess, and other patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation can override the whole thing.

So here is how I hold it. Wet is the high confidence call. Cold is the low confidence call. Prepare for both anyway.

Last winter was the opposite pattern and it still took my bananas

Winter 2025 into 2026 was a La Niña winter. On paper, La Niña means warm and dry for Florida.

We got the dry. We did not get the warm.

From the National Weather Service summary for South Florida, that winter delivered the coldest average temperatures since 2010 to 2011 at the four main climate sites, and the most freezing days since then. The lowest reading was 22 degrees at Palmdale on February 2. A hard freeze pushed all the way down into Collier County. Palm Beach International hit 30 degrees on back to back mornings on February 1 and 2, the first time that happened since 1989. Rainfall came in at only 1 to 3 inches, putting most sites among the ten driest winters on record. Drought went from moderate in December to extreme by the end of February, and at least five wildfires burned over 1,000 acres in February alone.

East Central Florida took it just as hard. The NWS office in Melbourne logged all time February record lows on the first and second: Daytona Beach 23, Leesburg 23, Sanford 23, Fort Pierce 23, Melbourne 24, and Vero Beach 26. Winter rainfall ran 2 to 7 inches below normal, and Daytona Beach and Sanford both landed in their ten driest winters on record.

North Florida had its own version. Tallahassee bottomed out at 19 degrees in January and picked up snow on the 18th.

At my place in West Central Florida, that freeze took every banana plant I had. All of them. First total banana loss in the six years I have been growing here. We had multiple days under 30 with wind strong enough that fire protection was useless.

Now here is the part that matters more than the loss.

They came back. Bananas store their energy in a rhizome underground, and the ground never froze. By this August I am back over 50 banana plants with the first post freeze flower open and several more close behind.

Two lessons came out of that winter and I am carrying both into this one.

One, the pattern gives you odds, not a guarantee. A La Niña winter is supposed to be warm and dry here. It handed us a historic freeze instead.

Two, plants that store energy underground shrug off what kills plants that do not. That is not a slogan. That is a design rule.

What it means for North Florida

UF/IFAS draws the North region roughly above State Road 40, and that includes the panhandle. Freezes are normal up there every single winter, El Niño or not. So the freeze is not the new part.

The new part is wet and cold at the same time.

• Drainage becomes the whole game. Cold roots sitting in soggy soil are how you lose blueberries, citrus, and young fruit trees. Wet soil plus cold is worse than cold alone.
• Fungal pressure on winter greens. Collards, cabbage, mustards, and broccoli handle cold fine. They do not handle weeks of wet leaves. Space them wider than you think and water the soil, not the foliage.
• Chill hours should be plenty. A cool cloudy winter usually stacks up chill hours, and that is good news for low chill peaches and blueberries. Look up the chill requirement for the exact variety you planted.
• Severe weather runs earlier and farther north. Tallahassee already saw tornadoes on January 25 last winter, and that was a La Niña. Take the watches seriously this year.

What it means for Central Florida

UF/IFAS puts Central between State Road 40 and State Road 70. This is my region, and it is the one with the most to lose in a strong El Niño, for two reasons.

Reason one is the storms. The I-4 corridor sits right under that southern jet. 1998 happened here. Every home in this stretch needs a weather radio and a plan for where the family goes at two in the morning.

Reason two is fruit set. This is the quiet money loss and almost nobody talks about it.

UF/IFAS says mangos in Florida bloom from December to April, and that "dry weather preceding and during the blooming period is considered optimal for good fruit production." A wet, cool, cloudy bloom season is the exact opposite of that.

UF/IFAS also notes that anthracnose does its worst damage in places where it rains through flowering and fruiting. The fungus kills the flower clusters outright and puts sunken black spots on baby fruit. Copper sprays are the standard homeowner tool, and the timing is the trick. You start when the flowers begin to form, not after you see damage.

Same worry applies to lychee, avocado, and citrus bloom. If you grow tropical fruit in Central Florida, a super El Niño is less a freeze story and more a pollination and disease story.

One more thing. Mango flowers and small fruit get hurt when the temperature drops below 40 degrees for a few hours, and mature trees take leaf and twig damage around 25 degrees. Young trees can die at 29 to 30. Those numbers are worth writing on the inside of your garage door.

What it means for South Florida

South of State Road 70, an outright freeze is rare. Last winter got one anyway, all the way into Collier County. Keep that in your head and then set it aside, because your bigger risk this winter is water.

• Root rot. UF/IFAS is blunt about avocado. The trees do not tolerate flooding or poorly drained soil, and while a lot of Florida ground already carries Phytophthora cinnamomi, the disease usually only turns serious when trees sit in flooded conditions. Their fix for low ground is to plant on a mound of native soil, 2 to 4 feet high and 4 to 6 feet across.
• Chill injury without a freeze. Tropicals do not need 32 degrees to suffer. Mango bloom takes damage below 40. Cold, wet, and windy in the 40s will stall a lot of tender plants.
• Standing water in raised beds. If your beds hold water after a heavy August storm, they will hold it all winter under an El Niño rain track. Fix the drainage in September, not in January.
• Mosquitoes and slugs. A wet dry season means pests that normally take the winter off do not.

Do these now, before anything happens

This is the list I am working through in my own yard right now. Nothing here costs much, and every one of these is worth doing even if the winter turns out mild.

1. Fix your drainage first. Walk the yard after the next hard rain and mark every spot that holds water for more than an hour. Those spots are where you will lose plants. Raise the bed, mound the tree, or move the plant.
2. Stop pruning tender plants now. UF/IFAS is clear on this. Late summer and early fall pruning pushes soft new growth, and soft new growth is the first thing cold kills.
3. Stop heavy nitrogen going into fall. Same reason. Good nutrition helps cold tolerance, but a late fertilizer push creates exactly the tender growth you do not want in December.
4. Buy your covers before the run. Frost cloth, canvas tarps, old bedsheets, quilts. UF/IFAS says the cover has to reach the ground to trap the heat coming up out of the soil, and it should not rest flat on the leaves. When the forecast finally says 28, every store in your county is sold out.
5. Mulch every root zone. Two to three inches. It slows heat loss out of the soil and it protects the roots, which is the part that lets a plant come back even when the top is gone.
6. Get a weather radio. Winter tornadoes here come at night. A phone on silent does not save anybody.
7. Move your containers to a spot you can defend. UF/IFAS recommends grouping pots together and mulching them, because a container root ball freezes far faster than ground soil.
8. Plant like the freeze is coming. Put tender things where a building, a fence, or a tree canopy blocks the wind and traps radiant heat. Skip the low spots. Cold air runs downhill and pools.
9. Put more of your calories underground. Sweet potatoes, cassava, ginger, turmeric, and bananas all store energy below the soil line. My bananas proved it in February.
10. Buy copper fungicide now if you grow mango. The spray works before the problem, not after.

Do these when a freeze is actually coming

1. Water the day before. UF/IFAS says well watered soil soaks up the sun's heat and gives it back overnight. Wet soil, not soggy soil.
2. Cover in the afternoon, all the way to the ground. You are trapping ground heat, not wrapping a plant in a blanket. A cover that stops at the trunk does close to nothing.
3. Weigh the edges down. Rocks, bricks, soil. A cover that blows off at midnight is a cover that did not exist.
4. Add a light under the cover for tender trees. UF/IFAS specifically mentions incandescent bulbs or old Christmas lights. LEDs do not throw heat.
5. Get the plastic off in the morning. Plastic covers cook plants once the sun hits. Vent them or pull them.
6. Know what wind does to your plan. Last February we had days under 30 with wind. Wind ruins radiant heat protection. That is when covers and fire both stop working, and you accept the loss and plan the comeback.

Do these after

1. Wait before you cut. UF/IFAS Extension in Miami-Dade says give it at least 3 to 7 days, and longer if you are unsure. Cold damage almost always looks worse the morning after than it turns out to be.
2. Use the scratch test. Scrape a little bark. Green underneath means alive. Brown or black means dead. Prune back to green and no further.
3. Leave the dead material for now. It insulates what is still living underneath it, and another cold night may be coming.
4. Water, do not feed. Return to a normal watering schedule and keep soil slightly moist. Skip the fertilizer, especially high nitrogen, until spring growth actually shows up. Then go light and slow release.
5. Check the spear on your palms. A firm spear leaf is a good sign. One that pulls out easily can mean bud rot, and UF/IFAS recommends copper hydroxide on the bud in that case.
6. Give tropicals months, not weeks. Recovery is slow. My bananas took from February to August to come all the way back, and they got there.

What this means for 2027

Two separate things happen after a big El Niño, and they run on different clocks.

Locally, the pattern fades through spring. IRI has El Niño at 97 percent through March into May 2027 and 78 percent by April through June. So a wetter than normal spring is a reasonable expectation, and then the odds start opening back up.

Globally, the heat shows up late. This is the part people get backwards. The ocean releases its stored heat into the atmosphere on a lag, which is why the hottest year on the books usually lands the year after the El Niño peaks, not during it.

The World Meteorological Organization said in May that this El Niño raises the chance of 2027 being the next record breaking year. Their annual update put an 86 percent chance on at least one year between 2026 and 2030 beating 2024, and a 91 percent chance that the 1.5 degree Celsius mark gets passed at least once in that window. For reference, 2024 came in at 1.55 degrees above pre industrial levels.

What that means for your yard in plain words: plan on a wet, cool, stormy winter, then plan on a hot 2027. Heat tolerance and water storage move up your list next year. Design for both now, because you are planting trees, and trees do not care what season you meant them for.

One more thing worth saying. If El Niño fades through 2027, the tropics get their voice back. This year's quiet hurricane season is a loan, not a gift.

Frequently asked questions

Is a super El Niño going to freeze my Florida garden?

Nobody can promise either way. What the record shows is that most of central Florida's major freezes since 1958 happened during neutral or weak La Niña winters, not during El Niño, and the Florida Climate Center reports that severe freeze risk is highest in neutral years. El Niño's clouds and rain tend to keep the coldest arctic air tracking farther east. That said, the National Weather Service also states that ENSO has far less forecast skill for temperature than for rainfall, and other patterns can override it. Prepare for a freeze regardless.

How much rain does an El Niño winter bring to Florida?

The National Weather Service says El Niño generally brings above average rainfall to Florida through fall, winter, and spring. The Florida Climate Center describes El Niño conditions in peninsular Florida as wet and cool from October through December and very wet and cool from January through March. Exact totals vary by year and by location, so watch your local forecast office rather than a season long number.

Does El Niño mean more tornadoes in Florida?

Historically yes. The National Weather Service office in Tallahassee reports Florida averages about 15 tornadoes per year under El Niño conditions, close to twice the number in neutral and La Niña years, and around 20 during a strong El Niño. Florida's deadliest tornado outbreak, which killed 42 people across Orange, Osceola, Seminole, and Volusia counties on February 22 and 23, 1998, happened during a very strong El Niño.

How cold was last winter in Florida?

Cold enough to set all time records. The National Weather Service in Melbourne logged all time February record lows on February 1 and 2, 2026, including 23 degrees at Daytona Beach, Leesburg, Sanford, and Fort Pierce, 24 at Melbourne, and 26 at Vero Beach. In South Florida the lowest reading was 22 degrees at Palmdale, and Palm Beach International hit 30 on two straight mornings for the first time since 1989. It was the coldest winter at the main South Florida sites since 2010 to 2011. And that was a La Niña winter, which is supposed to run warm here.

What should I plant in Florida ahead of a wet winter?

Lean into crops that store energy underground and crops that handle cool weather. Sweet potatoes, cassava, ginger, turmeric, and bananas all regrow from below the soil line even when the top is lost. Cool season greens like collards, cabbage, and mustards handle the cold fine, but they need wider spacing and better drainage than usual in a wet winter. Whatever you plant, fix the drainage before you put anything in the ground.

Will a strong El Niño hurt my mango or avocado crop?

It can, and not because of cold. UF/IFAS says mangos in Florida bloom from December to April and that dry weather before and during bloom is best for fruit production. A wet bloom season also raises anthracnose pressure, a fungus that destroys flower clusters and spots young fruit, so copper sprays should start when flowers begin forming. For avocado, UF/IFAS says the trees do not tolerate flooding or poorly drained soil, and Phytophthora root rot mostly turns serious when trees sit in saturated ground. Planting on a raised mound is their recommended fix.

What does this mean for 2027?

Forecast models keep El Niño in place into spring 2027, with IRI at 97 percent through March into May and 78 percent by April through June. Globally the heat arrives on a lag, which is why the World Meteorological Organization said in May 2026 that this El Niño raises the odds of 2027 being the next record warm year. Their update also put an 86 percent chance on at least one year from 2026 to 2030 beating 2024. Plan for a wet, stormy winter and a hot year behind it.

The bottom line

NOAA is telling us a very strong El Niño is more than 90 percent likely, with a real chance it becomes the strongest one ever measured. For Florida that usually means wet, cloudy, cool, and stormy, with more tornado risk than normal and, if the record holds, fewer severe freezes than a neutral year would bring.

But last winter was supposed to be warm and dry and it set all time cold records instead. So I am not betting the yard on a tendency.

Here is what I am doing. Fixing drainage in September. Buying frost cloth in October instead of January. Keeping the pruners and the nitrogen put away. Getting more of my food into plants that store their life underground where the cold cannot reach it.

That is not fear. That is just paying attention early, which is the cheapest thing you will ever do for a garden.

I will keep watching the advisories and I will tell you what I see, every time. You are not tracking this by yourself.

Grow Food NOT Lawns.

---

Sources

• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, issued August 13, 2026.
• NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Predictions.
• International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, ENSO Quick Look, August 2026.
• NOAA National Weather Service Tallahassee, ENSO and Florida.
• NOAA National Weather Service Melbourne, ENSO and Florida Temperature.
• NOAA National Weather Service Miami, Winter Outlook for South Florida.
• Florida Climate Center, Florida State University, Climate Variability.
• NOAA National Weather Service Miami, South Florida Winter 2025-2026 Summary.
• NOAA National Weather Service Melbourne, February 2026 and Winter 2025-2026 Weather Summary, East Central Florida.
• NOAA National Weather Service Tallahassee, Monthly Climate Summary, January 2026.
• NOAA National Weather Service Melbourne, The 1998 Central Florida Tornado Outbreak.
• UF/IFAS Extension, ENH1: Cold Protection of Landscape Plants.
• UF/IFAS Extension Miami-Dade County, Good Strategies for Cold Damage in the Landscape: Recovery, Not Panic.
• UF/IFAS Extension, HS2: Mango Growing in the Florida Home Landscape.
• UF/IFAS Extension, Avocado Growing in the Florida Home Landscape.
• UF/IFAS Extension St. Lucie County, Mango Anthracnose and its Management.
• World Meteorological Organization, Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update, May 2026, as reported on the 2027 record year outlook.
• NOAA, August 2026 updated Atlantic hurricane season outlook, as reported by Fox Weather.

This article is general gardening education, not a weather forecast, an emergency notice, or professional agricultural, horticultural, or safety advice. Seasonal climate outlooks describe probabilities, not certainties, and conditions at your address can differ sharply from any regional outlook. Always follow the official forecasts, watches, and warnings from the National Weather Service and your county emergency management office, and verify planting dates, variety selection, and pesticide or fungicide use with your local UF or IFAS Extension office and the product label. Follow all label directions. GrowFitFL is not responsible for crop, plant, property, or other loss resulting from weather or from actions taken based on this article. Facts and forecast figures reflect published sources as of August 23, 2026 and will change.

Keep going: see how close planting helps trees protect each other in how far apart to plant fruit trees in Florida, get the plant by plant details in The Southern Grow Guide entry for mango, or set up your cool season beds with the Fall Garden Kickoff and collards and kale for the whole season.